Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020
Stefano Guzzinati,
Saverio Virdone,
Roberta De Angelis,
Chiara Panato,
Carlotta Buzzoni,
Riccardo Capocaccia,
Silvia Francisci,
Anna Gigli,
Manuel Zorzi,
Giovanna Tagliabue,
Diego Serraino,
Fabio Falcini,
Claudia Casella,
Antonio Giampiero Russo,
Fabrizio Stracci,
Bianca Caruso,
Maria Michiara,
Anna Luisa Caiazzo,
Marine Castaing,
Stefano Ferretti,
Lucia Mangone,
Giuseppa Rudisi,
Flavio Sensi,
Guido Mazzoleni,
Fabio Pannozzo,
Rosario Tumino,
Mario Fusco,
Paolo Ricci,
Gemma Gola,
Adriano Giacomin,
Francesco Tisano,
Giuseppa Candela,
Anna Clara Fanetti,
Filomena Pala,
Antonella Sutera Sardo,
Massimo Rugge,
Laura Botta,
Luigino Dal Maso
Affiliations
Stefano Guzzinati
Veneto Tumor Registry
Saverio Virdone
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, CRO Aviano National Cancer Institute IRCCS
Roberta De Angelis
Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS)
Chiara Panato
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, CRO Aviano National Cancer Institute IRCCS
Carlotta Buzzoni
Tuscany Cancer Registry, Clinical and Descriptive Epidemiology Unit, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO)
Riccardo Capocaccia
Dipartimento di Ricerca Epidemiologica e Medicina Molecolare (DREaMM), Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori
Silvia Francisci
Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS)
Anna Gigli
Institute for Research on Population and Social Policies, National Research Council
Manuel Zorzi
Veneto Tumor Registry
Giovanna Tagliabue
Lombardy Cancer Registry, Varese Province, Cancer Registry Unit, Department of Research, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori
Diego Serraino
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, CRO Aviano National Cancer Institute IRCCS
Fabio Falcini
Romagna Cancer Registry, Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori (IRST) IRCCS, Meldola (Forlì), Italy-Azienda Usl della Romagna
Claudia Casella
Registro Tumori Ligure, Epidemiologia Clinica, Ospedale Policlinico San Martino IRCCS
Antonio Giampiero Russo
Cancer Registry of Milan, Epidemiology Unit, Agency for Health Protection of Milan
Fabrizio Stracci
Public Health Section, Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Perugia
Bianca Caruso
Modena Cancer Registry, Public Health Department, AUSL Modena
Maria Michiara
Parma Cancer Registry, Oncology Unit, Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria di Parma
Anna Luisa Caiazzo
Cancer Registry of Salerno Province
Marine Castaing
Registro Tumori Integrato Catania-Messina-Siracusa-Enna, Università degli Studi di Catania
Stefano Ferretti
Ferrara Cancer Registry, Ferrara Local Health Board, University of Ferrara, USL Ferrara
Lucia Mangone
Reggio Emilia Cancer Registry, Epidemiology unit, AUSL ASMN-IRCCS, Azienda USL di Reggio Emilia
Giuseppa Rudisi
Palermo and Province Cancer Registry, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Policlinico “Paolo Giaccone”
Flavio Sensi
North Sardinia Cancer Registry, Azienda Regionale per la Tutela della Salute
Guido Mazzoleni
Sudtyrol Cancer Registry
Fabio Pannozzo
Cancer Registry of Latina Province, AUSL Latina
Rosario Tumino
Cancer Registry ASP Ragusa
Mario Fusco
Cancer Registry of ASL Napoli 3 Sud
Paolo Ricci
Mantova Cancer Registry, Epidemilogy Unit, Agenzia di Tutela della Salute (ATS) della Val Padana
Gemma Gola
Como Cancer Registry, ATS Insubria
Adriano Giacomin
Registro Tumori Piemonte, Provincia di Biella CPO
Francesco Tisano
Cancer Registry of of the Province of Siracusa, Local Health Unit of Siracusa
Giuseppa Candela
Trapani Cancer Registry, Dipartimento di Prevenzione della Salute
Anna Clara Fanetti
Sondrio Cancer Registry, Health Protection Agency
Filomena Pala
Nuoro Cancer Registry, RT Nuoro, ASSL Nuoro/ATS Sardegna
Antonella Sutera Sardo
Catanzaro Cancer Registry, Azienda Sanitaria 7
Massimo Rugge
Veneto Tumor Registry
Laura Botta
Dipartimento di Ricerca Epidemiologica e Medicina Molecolare (DREaMM), Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori
Luigino Dal Maso
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, CRO Aviano National Cancer Institute IRCCS
Abstract Background Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. Methods Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. Results In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. Conclusions The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.
