Machine Learning Model for the Prediction of Hemorrhage in Intensive Care Units

Abstract

Objectives Early hemorrhage detection in intensive care units (ICUs) enables timely intervention and reduces the risk of irreversible outcomes. In this study, we aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict hemorrhage by learning the patterns of continuously changing, real-world clinical data. Methods We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care databases (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV). A recurrent neural network was used to predict severe hemorrhage in the ICU. We developed three machine learning models with an increasing number of input features and levels of complexity: model 1 (11 features), model 2 (18 features), and model 3 (27 features). MIMIC-III was used for model training, and MIMIC-IV was split for internal validation. Using the model with the highest performance, external verification was performed using data from a subgroup extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database. Results We included 5,670 ICU admissions, with 3,150 in the training set and 2,520 in the internal test set. A positive correlation was found between model complexity and performance. As a measure of performance, three models developed with an increasing number of features showed area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve values of 0.61–0.94 according to the range of input data. In the subgroup extracted from the eICU database for external validation, an AUROC value of 0.74 was observed. Conclusions Machine learning models that rely on real clinical data can be used to predict patients at high risk of bleeding in the ICU.

Keywords

• hemorrhage
• prognosis
• intensive care units
• monitoring
• physiological
• blood transfusion