Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014

Abstract

The growing availability of big data in healthcare and public health opens possibilities for infectious disease control in local settings. We prospectively evaluated a method for integrated local detection and prediction (nowcasting) of influenza epidemics over 5 years, using the total population in Östergötland County, Sweden. We used routine health information system data on influenza-diagnosis cases and syndromic telenursing data for July 2009–June 2014 to evaluate epidemic detection, peak-timing prediction, and peak-intensity prediction. Detection performance was satisfactory throughout the period, except for the 2011–12 influenza A(H3N2) season, which followed a season with influenza B and pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus activity. Peak-timing prediction performance was satisfactory for the 4 influenza seasons but not the pandemic. Peak-intensity levels were correctly categorized for the pandemic and 2 of 4 influenza seasons. We recommend using versions of this method modified with regard to local use context for further evaluations using standard methods.

Keywords

• epidemiology
• infectious disease
• human influenza
• signal detection analysis
• surveillance
• evaluation research