Research on stock prediction based on CED-PSO-StockNet time series model

Abstract

Abstract To tackle the challenge of low accuracy in stock prediction within high-noise environments, this paper innovatively introduces the CED-PSO-StockNet time series model. Initially, the model decomposes raw stock data using the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) technique and reconstructs the components by estimating their frequencies via the extreme point method. This process enhances component stability and mitigates noise interference. Subsequently, an Encoder-Decoder framework equipped with an attention mechanism is employed for precise prediction of the reconstructed components, facilitating more effective extraction and utilization of data features. Furthermore, this paper utilizes an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (IPSO) algorithm to optimize the model parameters. On the Pudong Bank dataset, through ablation experiments and comparisons with baseline models, various optimization strategies incorporated into the proposed CED-PSO-StockNet model were effectively validated. Compared to the standalone LSTM model, CED-PSO-StockNet achieved a remarkable 45.59% improvement in the R2 metric. To further assess the model’s generalization capability, this paper also conducted comparative experiments on the Ping An Bank dataset, and the results underscored the significant advantages of CED-PSO-StockNet in the domain of stock prediction.

Keywords

• Stock prediction
• CEEMDAN
• Encoder-decoder
• Attention mechanism
• PSO