COVID-19 vaccination strategies in settings with limited rollout capacity: a mathematical modelling case study in Sierra Leone

Abstract

Abstract Background COVID-19 vaccine coverage in low- and middle-income countries continues to be challenging. As supplies increase, coverage is increasingly becoming determined by rollout capacity. Methods We developed a deterministic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission to explore how age-, risk-, and dose-specific vaccine prioritisation strategies can minimise severe outcomes of COVID-19 in Sierra Leone. Results Prioritising booster doses to older adults and adults with comorbidities could reduce the incidence of severe disease by 23% and deaths by 34% compared to the use of these doses as primary doses for all adults. Providing a booster dose to pregnant women who present to antenatal care could prevent 38% of neonatal deaths associated with COVID-19 infection during pregnancy. The vaccination of children is not justified unless there is sufficient supply to not affect doses delivered to adults. Conclusions Our paper supports current WHO SAGE vaccine prioritisation guidelines (released January 2022). Individuals who are at the highest risk of developing severe outcomes should be prioritised, and opportunistic vaccination strategies considered in settings with limited rollout capacity.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• Mathematical model
• Vaccination
• Vaccine allocation
• Vaccine prioritisation