Development and validation of a model to predict the need for artificial airways for acute trauma patients in the emergency department: a retrospective case–control study

Abstract

Objective To develop scores for predicting the need for artificial airway procedures for acute trauma patients in the emergency department (ED).Design Retrospective case–control.Setting A tertiary comprehensive hospital in China.Participants 8288 trauma patients admitted to the ED within 24 hours of injury and who were admitted from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2020.Primary and secondary outcome measures The study outcome was the establishment of an artificial airway within 24 hours of admission to the ED. Based on the different feature compositions, two scores were developed in the development cohort by multivariable logistic regression. The predictive performance was assessed in the validation cohort.Results The O-SPACER (Oxygen saturation, Systolic blood pressure, Pulse rate, Age, Coma Scale, Eye response, Respiratory rate) score was developed based on the patient’s basic information with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.89) in the validation group. Based on the basic information and trauma scores, the IO-SPACER (Injury Severity Score, Oxygen saturation, Systolic blood pressure, Pulse rate, Age, Coma Scale, Eye response, Respiratory rate) score was developed, with an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.92). According to the O-SPACER and IO-SPACER scores, the patients were stratified into low, medium and high-risk groups. According to these two scores, the high-risk patients were associated with an increased demand for artificial airways, with an OR of 40.16–40.67 compared with the low-risk patients.Conclusions The O-SPACER score provides risk stratification for injured patients requiring urgent airway intervention in the ED and may be useful in guiding initial management. The IO-SPACER score may assist in further determining whether the patient needs planned intubation or tracheotomy early after trauma.