A VISION OF THE FUTURE THROUGH PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS: A TOOL FOR THE ANTICIPATION OF DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION

Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies. 2013;4(2):102-131 DOI 10.7444/fsrj.v4i2.110

 

Journal Homepage

Journal Title: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies

ISSN: 2175-5825 (Online)

Publisher: Fundação Instituto de Administração

Society/Institution: Fundação Instituto de Administração

LCC Subject Category: Social Sciences: Commerce: Business

Country of publisher: Brazil

Language of fulltext: Portuguese, English

Full-text formats available: PDF

 

AUTHORS

Ivan Domicio da Silva Souza (Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo)
Vania Passarini Takahashi (Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo)

EDITORIAL INFORMATION

Double blind peer review

Editorial Board

Instructions for authors

Time From Submission to Publication: 8 weeks

 

Abstract | Full Text

Future events are unknown, unexpected and even if forecasts may offer some estimation, there is no way to predict the behavior of unprecedented events. Therefore, looking into the future and drafting a strategy is not a simple activity. All this process is even more fastidious in a period of uncertainties, changes and world crises. However, a method named Scenario Planning may contribute to the formulation of strategies in turbulent environments. In this paper it is reviewed and consolidated the theories and reports in the literature, in order to elucidate the use of prospective scenarios as a tool to anticipate disruptive innovation. In this sense, it is presented and discussed some considerations about the origin of scenarios, the relation between scenarios and strategy, the typologies of scenarios, the tools for scenarios construction, the traditional methods in scenarios development and the advantages and disadvantages of this method. Indeed, scenario planning is a flexible and stimulative method which allows one to identify opportunities for innovation, so as to favor resilient strategic planning and future visioning in threatening environments.