Analysis of carcinogenic risk and dynamics of population morbidity and mortality in the Irkutsk region due to malignant neoplasms

Abstract

Morbidity and mortality caused by malignant neoplasms (MNs) is a priority challenge for health care. We analyzed some rough and standardized levels (oncological morbidity and mortality) over 2009–2018 based on official statistics. We ranked the RF regions as per the standardized morbidity level and established that the Irkutsk region took the 1st rank place among 85 RF regions as per it; it took the 16th rank place as per the ‘rough’ level. Morbidity and mortality levels that were higher in the Irkutsk region than the national average were established for such localizations as trachea, bronchi and lung cancer; prostate cancer; cervical cancer. The mortality to morbidity ratios were on average equal to 0.45 in the Irkutsk region and 0.49 in the RF as a whole; we identified a certain decrease in them, by 19.3 % and 20.0 % accordingly. We provided evidence of unacceptable individual carcinogenic chemical risk for people in cities with developed chemical industry and non-ferrous metallurgy. High carcinogenic radiation risks were caused by natural radon levels in soils. We calculated some prognostic morbidity and mortality levels: in 2021, the standardized morbidity level would be between 270.9 and 329.8 cases per 100 thousand people; the ‘rough’ level, between 372.7 and 532.4. The ‘rough’ mortality level would be between 220 and 230 cases per 100 thousand people. We determined some priority tasks for future research aimed at identifying adverse effects produced by environmental factors and lifestyle-related factors as well as some tasks related to developing relevant targeted activities aimed at eliminating and mitigating cancer-inducing exposures.

Keywords

• carcinogenic risk
• morbidity
• mortality
• malignant neoplasms
• population
• chemical factor
• radiation factor
• prognosis