The natural history of acute Ebola Virus Disease among patients managed in five Ebola treatment units in West Africa: A retrospective cohort study.

Abstract

Previous studies of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have focused on clinical symptoms and Ebola virus (EBOV) cycle threshold (CT) values recorded at patient triage. Our study explores EVD symptoms and EBOV CT values from onset of illness to recovery or death in a diverse population of patients.We analyzed clinical care data from EBOV positive patients admitted to five Ebola treatment units in West Africa from 2014-2015. Prevalence of clinical signs/symptoms and CT values were explored using descriptive statistics. Logistic regression was used to examine their association with mortality. Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimators from symptom onset date to death. During the first week of illness, dyspnea (OR = 2.44, 95% CI: 1.07-5.85) and tachycardia (OR = 10.22, 95% CI: 2.20-56.71) were associated with higher odds of mortality. Dyspnea (OR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.210-4.581), bleeding (OR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.219-5.337), and diarrhoea (OR = 2.79, 95% CI: 1.171-6.970) at any point during the illness course were associated with higher odds of mortality. Higher initial (OR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89) and mean (OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.53-0.66) CT values were associated with lower odds of mortality. CT values reached their nadir after 3-5 days of illness and then rose in both survivors and non-survivors until recovery or death.Our study demonstrates the population prevalence of clinical signs/symptoms and EBOV CT values over time in a large, diverse cohort of patients with EVD, as well as associations between symptoms/EBOV CT values and mortality. These findings have implications on surveillance, operational planning, and clinical care for future EVD outbreaks.