Shanghai yufang yixue (Aug 2024)
Probability of premature death from 4 major chronic diseases among the registered residents in Xuhui District, Shanghai from 2007 to 2021
Abstract
ObjectiveTo understand the death status of major chronic diseases among the registered residents in Xuhui District, Shanghai from 2007 to 2021, and to analyze the probability and trend of premature death, so as to provide an evidence for the policy-making of disease control and prevention.MethodsBased on the data from the death registration system of the registered residents in Xuhui District, Shanghai from 2007 to 2021, the mortality rate of major chronic diseases, life expectancy without cause of death, potential years of life lost (PYLL), average years of life lost (AYLL), and premature death rate were calculated. Joinpoint 4.8 software was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) of premature death rate and its trend.ResultsIn 2021, the mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of four major chronic diseases, namely cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes mellitus and chronic lower respiratory diseases among the registered residents in Xuhui District, Shanghai was 767.75/100 000 and 234.69/100 000, respectively, accounting for 85.63% of the total causes of death among the residents in Xuhui District, Shanghai. The PYLL, AYLL and PYLL rate were 10 710.00 person-years, 1.49 years per person, and 11.43‰, respectively. Life expectancy increased by 14.91 years after removing the four major chronic diseases. From 2007 to 2021, the premature death rate of chronic diseases among the registered residents in Xuhui District decreased from 9.38% to 7.91% (APC=-1.09%,P<0.05). Malignant tumors had the highest rate in premature death, and the premature death rate was higher in males than that in females, with a slower rate of decline than in females. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors and chronic lower respiratory diseases showed a significant decreasing trend in premature death rate (APC=-1.30%, -1.20%, -5.42%, P<0.05), while diabetes mellitus showed a significant increasing trend in premature death rate (APC=3.20%, P<0.05). There was a significant increasing trend in the rate of premature death from diabetes mellitus in males (APC=5.15%, P<0.05) and a decreasing trend in the rate of premature death from diabetes mellitus in females (APC=-0.76%, P<0.05).ConclusionCardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, malignant tumors, diabetes mellitus and chronic lower respiratory diseases are the main causes of death among the registered residents in Xuhui District. The probability of premature death of the residents in Xuhui District from major chronic diseases is at a low level, indicating that the prevention and control of chronic diseases in Xuhui District has achieved some success, but it is still difficult to realize the goals of the Outline of the "Healthy China 2030" Plan. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively carry out the control of risk factors such as tobacco use, harmful alcohol consumption, salt intake, hypertension, hyperglycemia and obesity, especially to strengthen the control of risk factors for male residents, as well as early diagnosis and treatment of malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebral vascular diseases and diabetes mellitus, and to implement the disease management mechanism to reduce premature death.
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