Quantitative simulation and verification of the tourism economic resilience in urban agglomerations

Abstract

Abstract The concept of tourism economic resilience emphasizes the sustainable development level of tourism economy under uncertainty and risk. Focusing on urban agglomerations, this study aims to describe how the tourism economic resilience is developing, explore whether the resilience level is enhanced with urban agglomerations and whether spatial elements affect resilience levels. With the combination of the aggregation and diffusion effects and crowding effects of regional development, the study uses a combination of dynamic evaluation method, spatial kernel density, and mathematical models of urban agglomeration development to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of tourism economic resilience from 2006 to 2019, simulates and verifies its development patterns. The conclusions show that: (1) The tourism economic resilience in urban agglomerations is closely related to regional development and prosperity; (2) The development of tourism economic resilience also follows the spatial economic development pattern which moves towards equilibrium in aggregation process; (3) The tourism economic resilience of urban agglomerations has a fluctuation climbing node, generally presents as a wave-like upward trend with fluctuations and stages; (4) The evolutionary trend of tourism economic resilience in urban agglomerations presents as a slight wave-like upward curve that changes with time and co-opetition.