Risk Prediction and Optimal Control of Waterlogging in Urban Land Based on PLUS-SCS Model

Abstract

[Objective] The urban land use in the future and corresponding waterlogging risk intensity was predicted, and the optimal control of the waterlogging risk and its implementation effects was explored in order to provide references for improving the prevention and control level of urban waterlogging and optimizing the layout of urban land use. [Methods] The study was conducted in Changsha City, Hunan Province. Urban land use layout and its waterlogging risk under a baseline scenario were predicted using the PLUS and SCS models. High-risk waterlogging areas were used as limiting conversion factors in the PLUS model to simulate the urban land layout and its waterlogging risk under a waterlogging control scenario by coupling the PLUS and SCS models. The implementation of the optimal management and control measures was verified by comparing the waterlogging risk differences under the two scenarios. [Results] The high-risk waterlogging area of construction land was predicted to be 96.47 km2 in 2035 under the baseline scenario, and the total waterlogging risk area of the urban construction land under the waterlogging control scenario would be reduced by 36.94 km2 compared with the baseline scenario without reducing construction land area. Furthermore, all high-risk areas in the new construction land would be avoided. [Conclusion] The waterlogging risk in urban land will increase significantly in the future. An optimization control method based on the PLUS-SCS model will help cities avoid waterlogging risk.

Keywords

• waterlogging risk prediction
• optimal control of risk
• plus model
• scs model
• future scenario simulation
• changsha city, hunan province