Building Guardrails: Crisis Management in China–US Competition

Abstract

Intensifying US–China rivalry has heightened the risk of accidental crises that might spiral out of control. Even as President Biden continues much of the Trump administration’s confrontational approach to China, senior Biden administration officials agree on the strategic imperative of improving the risk reduction mechanisms between Beijing and Washington. Though the odds of armed conflict arising from deliberate provocations may be low, the risks of spinoff crises in China’s periphery and accidental crises in emerging domains like space and cyberspace have grown in recent years. Amid growing geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, better crisis management serves the interests of China, the United States, and the world at large. Beijing should maintain its effective deterrence by upholding the “security through mutual trust” principle and laying out clear red lines. It should also resist Washington’s efforts to include illegitimate interests and conduct risk reduction mechanisms and promote multilateral security talks on the codes of conduct in space, cyberspace, and other emerging domains.

Keywords

• Strategic competition
• crisis management
• great power diplomacy