The Relationship between Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Market in Iran

Abstract

providing a model for better identifying the pattern of exchange rate effects on the capital market and forecast the next one and two years of the Iranian capital market is The purpose of this study. In this regard, using 4 specification criteria (Maximum likelihood, Akaik, Schwartz and Hannan Quinn) we compare the fitness of two-regime Markov switching Model(2R-MSM) with three-regime Markov switching model(3R-MSM) relating to exchange rate fluctuations and the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and capital market. Afterward we forecast the regime for relationship of exchange rate and capital market. results show in recognizing the pattern of exchange rate effects on the capital market, 3R-MSM outperforms 2R-MSM. According to the research findings, if the foreign exchange market fluctuates severely, an increase in the exchange rate will certainly increase capital market return, but when foreign exchange market is almost stable, the effect of this variable on the capital market can be positive or negative. According to the estimated probabilities, in the coming years we are expected to see a positive effect of the exchange rate on the capital market in a low volatility environment.

Keywords

• capital market
• exchange rate regimes
• markov switching model