The Effect of Estimated Accuracy of Management Earning Forecasts on Post-earning Announcement Drift

Abstract

This research examines the effects of estimated accuracy of forecast of ex-ante bundled management earnings on post-earning announcement drift. The model used in the study, first, takes earning forecast properties, including forecast ability, difficulty and environment, to provide estimation of earnings forecast accuracy. In the second stage, the model examines the effects of estimated forecast accuracy on post-earnings announcement drift. Study period is 2006 to 2012, and unbalanced panel data method is used for estimation of the models. The study results from the first stage showed that earnings forecast properties could significantly explain the management earnings forecast accuracy. The study results in second stage showed that adjusted abnormal returns cannot be explained by unexpected earnings. The findings are valid for bundled forecasts with no respect to forecasts accuracy, and will be held valid along with increasing accuracy of bundled forecasts.

Keywords

• management earning forecast
• forecast properties
• under-reaction
• post-earning announcement drift