IDENTIFICATION OF TYPICAL PROFILES OF REGIONS WITH A TENDENCY TO GROWTH IN SOCIAL TENSION BASED ON ANALYSIS OF STATISTICS DATA OF FEDERATION SUBJECTS (FIRST HALF 2020)

Abstract

Currently, in connection with the unfolding economic and social crisis, methods of forecasting social and ethno-cultural tensions in the regions of the Russian Federation are becoming more and more relevant in order to timely prevent and prevent social explosions. Purpose – forecasting zones of social tension and possible local social explosions on the basis of available statistical data on the economic and social life of the regions; identification of factors-indicators of a possible social explosion; description of the main profiles of regions with a high level of risk of increasing social tension. Research methodology. We analyzed 70 indicators of the economic, financial, demographic, social situation in the regions of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2020 (January-June, January-July) in order to identify the most vulnerable regions (data from the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the General Prosecutor’s Office of Russia, Federal Service statistics of Russia, the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia, Ministry of Health of Russia). The data were processed using nonparametric methods of mathematical statistics (correlation analysis, STATISTICA 13 package). Results. Two main profiles of regions with a tendency to an increase in social tension were identified. Practical implications. The findings of the study will be useful for government bodies at the federal and regional levels, for political parties, large consulting, logistics and insurance companies, federal retailers.

Keywords

• экономическая политика
• социальная политика
• безопасность
• пандемия
• регионоведение
• социальная напряженность