Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives (Mar 2024)
Trip generation model for a developing city in an emerging country
Abstract
This paper presents the development of trip generation models in an emerging country. In this paper, trip generation models for a medium-size Palestinian city, the City of Jericho, are established. This study is the first comprehensive city-wide trip generation study that was done within the Palestinian territories. Moreover, the study considers mixed land use while developing trip generation models. Household demographic, socioeconomic, land use and trip data were collected to generate models to represent trip generation for trips with different purposes, such as number of daily trips for educational, shopping, social, and recreational purposes. Stratified and random household samples are drawn from the study area, covering 14 different traffic analysis zones. All the households were visited, and personal face-to-face interviews were conducted to collect demographic, socioeconomic and travel behavior information. A multivariable regression analysis approach is used to analyze the collected data in order to develop overall daily trip generation models, as well as trip generation models by trip purpose and time of day. Most of the trip generation models that were developed have acceptable coefficient of determination (R2), while some of the models did not perform as expected. The Education Trips model resulted in the highest R2, while the Off-Peak Trips model resulted in the lowest R2. Most of the independent variables were also relevant to present the expected socioeconomic characteristics. Using land use variables did not significantly contribute towards improving the regression models, where only marginal improvements are noticed. It is suggested to investigate the transferability of the developed models to other Palestinian cities, and to verify the applicability of these models to other cities with different sizes.
