Ischemia prediction score (IsPS) in patients with strangulated small bowel obstruction: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Backgrounds Intestinal ischemia of strangulated small bowel obstruction (SSBO) requires prompt identification and early intervention. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and develop a prediction model of intestinal ischemia requiring bowel resection in SSBO. Methods This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients underwent emergency surgery for SSBO from April 2007 to December 2021. Univariate analysis was performed to identify the risk factors for bowel resection in these patients. Two clinical scores (with contrasted computed tomography [CT] and without contrasted CT) were developed to predict intestinal ischemia. The scores were validated in an independent cohort. Results A total of 127 patients were included, 100 in the development cohort (DC) and 27 in the validation cohort (VC). Univariate analysis showed that high white blood cell count (WBC), low base excess (BE), ascites and reduced bowel enhancement were significantly associated with bowel resection. The ischemia prediction score (IsPS) comprised 1 point each for WBC ≥ 10,000/L, BE ≤ -1.0 mmol/L, ascites, and 2 points for reduced bowel enhancement. The simple IsPS (s-IsPS, without contrasted CT) of 2 or more had a sensitivity of 69.4%, specificity of 65.4%. The modified IsPS (m-IsPS, with contrasted CT) of 3 or more had a sensitivity of 86.7%, specificity of 76.0%. AUC of s-IsPS was 0.716 in DC and 0.812 in VC, and AUC of m-IsPS was 0.838 and 0.814. Conclusion IsPS predicted possibility of ischemic intestinal resection with high accuracy and can help in the early identification of intestinal ischemia in SSBO.

Keywords

• Strangulated small bowel obstruction
• Intestinal ischemia
• Emergency surgery
• Computed tomography
• Prediction model