A kinetic model considering the decline of antibody level and simulation about vaccination effect of COVID-19

Abstract

We build a model that consider the falling antibody levels and vaccination to assess the impact of falling antibody levels and vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak, and simulate the influence of vaccination rates and failure rates on the number of daily new cases in England. We get that the lower the vaccine failure rate, the fewer new cases. Over time, vaccines with low failure rates are more effective in reducing the number of cases than vaccines with high failure rates and the higher the vaccine efficiency and vaccination rate, the lower the epidemic peak. The peak arrival time is related to a boundary value. When the failure rate is less than this boundary value, the peak time will advance with the decrease of failure rate; when the failure rate is greater than this boundary value, the peak time is delayed with the decrease of failure rate. On the basis of improving the effectiveness of vaccines, increasing the vaccination rate has practical significance for controlling the spread of the epidemic.

Keywords

• covid-19
• epidemic dynamics
• seir model
• vaccine efficiency