Hybrid GRU–Random Forest Model for Accurate Atmospheric Duct Detection with Incomplete Sounding Data

Abstract

Atmospheric data forecasting traditionally relies on physical models, which simulate atmospheric motion and change by solving atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics, and radiative transfer processes. However, numerical models often involve significant computational demands and time constraints. In this study, we analyze the performance of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM) using over two decades of sounding data from the Xisha Island Observatory in the South China Sea. We propose a hybrid model that combines GRU and Random Forest (RF) in series, which predicts the presence of atmospheric ducts from limited data. The results demonstrate that GRU achieves prediction accuracy comparable to LSTM with 10% to 20% shorter running times. The prediction accuracy of the GRU-RF model reaches 0.92. This model effectively predicts the presence of atmospheric ducts in certain height regions, even with low data accuracy or missing data, highlighting its potential for improving efficiency in atmospheric forecasting.

Keywords

• atmospheric data forecasting
• GRU
• LSTM
• RF
• atmospheric duct prediction