Using a Random Forest Model to Predict the Location of Potential Damage on Asphalt Pavement

Abstract

Potential damage, eventually demonstrated as moisture damage on inner and in-situ road structures, is the most complex problem to predict, which costs lots of money, time, and natural resources for maintenance and even leads to safety problems. Traditional linear regression analysis cannot fit well with this multi-factor task in such in-field circumstances. Random Forest (RF) is a progressive nonlinear algorithm, which can combine all relative factors to gain accurate prediction and good explanation. In this study, an RF model is constructed for the prediction of potential damage. In addition, relative variable importance is analyzed to obtain the correlations between factors and potential damage separately. The results show that, through the optimization, the model achieved a good average accuracy of 83.33%. Finally, the controlling method for moisture damage is provided by combining the traditional analysis method and the RF model. In a word, RF is a prospective method in predictions and data mining for highway engineering. Trained with effective data, it can be multifunctional and powerful to solve hard problems.

Keywords

• moisture damage
• random forest
• machine learning
• factor importance
• prediction