Modeling vineyard expansion, potential habitat fragmentation

Abstract

We used a statistical modeling technique called logistic regression analysis, and a geographic information system (GIS), to map areas of possible future vineyard expansion in Sonoma County, based on data about vineyard development from 1990 through 1997. The goal of this research was to develop a model that would improve our understanding of vineyard expansion patterns at a landscape scale (for instance, including an entire county). The approach involved identifying landscape characteristics that were associated with vineyard development and mapping the areas with similar characteristics that were undeveloped in 1997. We used the results to map where habitat removal and fragmentation could result from vineyard expansion. This method, although still under development, is designed for county- or regional-scale analysis to assist land-use planners, natural resource protection agencies and land conservation programs in protecting valuable environmental resources while sustaining a vital agricultural economy.