Early warning mechanisms for global crises in non-governmental organisations

Abstract

The aim of this article is to analyse the use of the early warning mechanism in non-governmental organisations on the example of the International Crisis Group, which is a leading entity in respect of that matter. For the purposes of the study, the author verifies the hypothesis that the mechanisms developed in the International Crisis Group are effective, and the forecasts are useful for the needs of decision-makers. It is supported by the fact that non-governmental organisations shape desired attitudes and decisions taken by the international community regarding the prevention and resolution of conflicts. Several questions were posed in this research: (1) what is the nature of early warning mechanisms? (2) what distinguishes early warning systems in international organizations? (3) what is the effectiveness of early warning mechanisms? (4) how is the International Crisis Group's early warning mechanism used? The case study method was used to verify the research hypothesis, while the main technique is the analysis of the state of the scholar literature and the content of appropriate documents.

Keywords

• early warning
• conflicts
• crisis
• international non-governmental organisations
• the International Crisis Group
• forecasting in international relations