Earthquake: an Analysis of the “Economic Risk” in the Perspective of Prevention

Abstract

The seismic risk affects most of the Italian territory and is realized, with worrying regularity, in events with very impactful and, unfortunately, often tragic effects; each time they end up reproducing similar schemes, first an emergency phase characterized by a wide participation, both operational and emotional, then a debate on the need for more incisive prevention tools, then a slow and cumbersome reconstruction, finally the need to reinvent territories now deprived of previous balances. One of the critical passages, which drags the effect of these events over time, is represented by the economic impact on the material heritage and the resources needed to carry out adequate prevention projects or, subsequently, reconstruction; however, in the presence of unfavorable economic trends, the results end up being dramatically amplified. This paper aims to investigate precisely some economic aspects related to seismic risk, with implications largely extensible to the broader scope of natural disasters: • in the first part, a detailed analysis of past experiences and related impacts is proposed, both from the point of view of emergency and post-emergency interventions and of prevention policies; • in the second part, an investigation was developed concerning the macro-economic and political roots from which the structural criticalities emerged, trying to deduce possible actions and ways out; • finally, in the third and last part, the technical tools and regulatory guidelines available to pursue the identified objectives were examined and assessed.

Keywords

• seismic risk
• earthquake costs
• observatory real estate
• financial resources
• public policies