Survival analysis and prognostic factors of oesophageal carcinoma: a followup study

Abstract

Background and objectives: Oesophageal carcinoma (OC) is a leading cancer in Sri Lanka. Despite the advancements in treatment, survival of patients with OC is reported to remain low. Thus, obtaining an insight into the survival and its prognostic factors is essential for policy making. Methods: All newly diagnosed cases of OC at the National Cancer Institute Maharagama during the period of May 2015 to May 2016 (n=110) were followed up for one year to assess their survival. Univariate Kaplan-Meier Survival analysis (Log Rank test) was used to assess the survival of demographic, socio-economic and clinical subgroups; and subgroups of population-specific risk factor profile for OC in Sri Lanka. In multivariate analysis, Cox-Proportional Regression was used to assess the Hazard Ratios (HR) of the prognostic factors of survival. Results: One-year survival rate of the participants was 8.2% with median survival of four months (95% CI: 3.2, 4.8). Univariate analysis revealed that those of less than 60 years (p=0.006), with secondary or higher education (p=0.017), with monthly income >Rs. 20,000 (p=0.026), having adenocarcinoma (p=0.001), of stage I disease (p

Keywords

• Oesophageal carcinoma
• Survival
• Prognostic factors
• Sri Lanka