Evaluation of four scoring systems in prognostication of acute pancreatitis for elderly patients

Abstract

Abstract Background To evaluate the ability of four scoring systems (Ranson, BISAP, Glasgow, and APACHE II) to predict outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP) in elderly patients. Methods This was a retrospective study of 918 patients presenting with AP at Zhongda Hospital Southeast University, from January 2015 to December 2018. We divided patients into two groups: 368 patients who were ≥ 60 years old, and 550 patients who were < 60 years old. Four scoring systems were used to analyze all patients. Results The severity of the disease, and mortality were significantly different between the two groups (p < 0.05), while the difference between the two groups about pancreatic necrosis is statistically insignificant (p = 0.399). The differences of the AUCs (Area under curves) for prediction of outcome of SAP (severe acute pancreatitis) between the two groups were statistically significant for Ranson and APACHE II (p < 0.05), but not for the differences between BISAP and Glasgow. All the four scoring systems were similar in terms of prediction of pancreatic necrosis and death in both groups. Conclusions Prediction of severity, pancreatic necrosis, and death in AP for elderly patients can be performed very well by using BISAP. APACHE II is more suitable for younger patients when dealing with severity. Ranson and Glasgow can be used to evaluate all AP patients in most cases; however, Ranson is more effective for younger patients when used to assess severity.

Keywords

• Acute pancreatitis
• Elderly patients
• Prediction
• Scoring system
• ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve