Could the Futility of Terrorism Inspire Deradicalization? Narrative Strategies Arising from Case Studies of Far-Right Lone-Actor Terrorism

Abstract

Despite a growing body of research on deradicalization, research has not yet established which specific counter-narratives are most effective at achieving ideological or behavioral deradicalization. One potential narrative strategy concerns the futility of most terrorism—its lack of effectiveness in achieving political objectives. Previous research argues that idiosyncratic strategic thinking, or perpetrators’ bizarre and extremely unrealistic expectations about the effects of their attacks, is common among terrorists, but this needs further empirical confirmation and has not been explored as a deradicalization strategy. This article thus analyzes the idiosyncratic strategic thinking behind a sample (n=8) of far-right lone-actor terrorist attacks, including the 2011 Norway and 2018 New Zealand massacres and subsequent copycat attacks, and drawing from this analysis, develops eight narrative deradicalization strategies. The article concludes by proposing a study testing the effect of various interventions, including futility-focused counter-narratives as well as others, on individuals’ likelihood of engaging in extremist violence.

Keywords

• mass shootings
• lone-actor terrorism
• idiosyncratic terrorism
• effects of terrorism