Livestock exposure to future cumulated climate-related stressors in West Africa

Abstract

Abstract A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated climate-related stressors in the future. Using the world’s largest multi-model climate impacts simulations database ISIMIP, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5–6 cumulated multiple climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of the current total regional livestock could be exposed to these cumulated stressors, with sheep and goat as the most affected species. This paper brings new quantifications that may help policy makers to prioritize decisions that could prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts.