EL NIÑO OF 1997-1998 AND 2015-2016 COMPARED TO THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF THE GRAVITATIONAL FORCES OF THE MOONAND THE SUN DURING THE EQUATORIAL SOLAR ECLIPSES

Abstract

Aim. The work is aimed at revealing the similarity of the conditions for the appearance of the strongest modern El Niño of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 (which are united by 120, 125, 130 Saros series of solar eclipses) years. Methodology. Scientific works on the causes and classification of El Niño events are studied. The coincidences in the trajectories of equatorial solar eclipses during the final phase of the El Niño formation are analyzed. Results. The extreme ENSO events identified by the MSU staff are distributed as follows: fifteen years out of eighteen with La Niña events (except for 1955, 1965, 1976) were years with two polar eclipses and, as a rule, preceded the years with El Niño. A feature of eleven out of twelve years with January El Niño (with the exception of 1978) was the presence of trajectories of solar eclipses, passing through the waters of the tropical and equatorial regions of the Pacific or Indian (with access to the west of the Pacific) oceans. In some years, the trajectory of the eclipse began in Southeast Asia. These differences in astronomical events during the formation of El Niño and La Niña indicate the need to take into account the influence of the forces of celestial mechanics in the form of synchronization of the gravitational forces of the Moon and the Sun, and their rather complex role in terrestrial processes. Research implications. The reasons shaping the launch of Madden-Julian oscillations and abnormal westerly winds (which are a necessary condition for the emergence of El Niño), may be the tidal forces of the Moon and the Sun and their synchronization during the month, before and after the moment of the eclipse, in the western Pacific Ocean, in the Indian Ocean, in South-East Asia. Gravitational forces, depending on the configuration of the eclipse trajectory, involve air masses in tropical and equatorial latitudes in an anomalous western transfer, with south- or north-western components. Polar eclipses at high latitudes can amplify polar tides, creating surf waves, and become a trigger to changes in the speed and amplitude of Kelvin and Rossby waves, especially when polar eclipses change to equatorial ones.

Keywords

• El Niño
• role of celestial mechanics
• eclipse trajectory
• anomalous western tropical transfer