Response of flood events to extreme precipitation: two case studies in Taihu Basin, China

Abstract

Flood events are typically triggered by extreme precipitation in rain-dominant basins. In this study, to better understand the genetic mechanisms and characteristics of floods, copula functions are used to analyze the response of flood events to extreme precipitation. The coincidence probabilities of the typical extreme flood and precipitation events are calculated; different return periods of their arbitrary combinations are calculated, whereas the dangerous domains for flood control under different return periods are identified; furthermore, flood risk analysis under different extreme precipitation scenarios is performed via their conditional exceedance probabilities. The Xitiaoxi catchment (XC) and Dongtiaoxi catchment (DC) in the Zhexi Region of the Taihu Basin are selected as the study area. The results show that in four scenarios with precipitation frequencies of 80%, 90%, 93.33%, and 95%, the probabilities of the dangerous flood are 9.72%, 10.57%, 10.86%, and 11.01% in the XC, respectively, and 5.91%, 6.31%, 6.44%, and 6.51% in the DC, respectively. This study provides a practical basis and guidance for the computation of rainstorm designs, management of flood control safety, and water resource scheduling in the Taihu Basin. HIGHLIGHTS This study focused on the flood risk in the main water source of Taihu Lake, i.e., the Zhexi Region, which had a direct and significant impact on the floods in the Taihu Basin.; Extreme hydrological and meteorological events were considered as the objects of this study. Their joint probability distribution and combined effects were directly related to the degree of flood risk.;

Keywords

• bivariate frequency
• copula
• extreme precipitation
• flood risk analysis
• return periods
• taihu basin