Delayed response to environmental conditions and infra-seasonal dynamics of the short-beaked common dolphin distribution

Abstract

Cetaceans adjust their distribution and abundance to encountered conditions across years and seasons, but we poorly understand such small-scale changes for many species, especially in winter. Crucial challenges confront some populations during this season, such as the high levels of fisheries-induced mortality faced by the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the Northeast Atlantic shelves. For such species, understanding the winter fine-scale dynamics is crucial. We aimed to identify the dolphin distribution drivers during the winters of 2020 and 2021, with a focus on determining the lag between changes in oceanographic conditions and dolphin distribution. The changes were related to temporal delays specific to the nature and cascading effects that oceanographic processes had on the trophic chain. By determining the most important conditions and lags to dolphin distributions, we shed light on the poorly understood intrusions of dolphins within coastal waters during winter: they displayed a strong preference for the coastal-shelf waters front and extensively followed its spatial variations, with their overall densities increasing over the period and peaking in March–April. The results presented here provide invaluable information on the winter distribution dynamics and should inform management decisions to help reduce the unsustainable mortalities of this species in the by-catch of fisheries.

Keywords

• winter
• Bay of Biscay
• simulation
• temporal lag
• dynamic species distribution modelling