The Short-Term Forecasting of the Labor Market Supply in Ukraine

Abstract

The article is aimed at developing a short-term forecast of the labor market supply in Ukraine. The main methods for forecasting the development of socio-economic processes, as well as advantages and disadvantages of using them, have been considered. The article discloses essence of the conception of underutilization of labor force, which, in accordance with the updated international standards on labor statistics, has superseded the conception of economic activity. In the course of the study usage of the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to analyse and forecast the time series of socio-economic indicators has been substantiated, also an algorithm for applying this method has been developed. On the basis of the official statistical monthly data on the number of registered unemployed from January 2007 to March 2017, with the application of the Caterpillar SSA software package, a forecast of this indicator has been developed from early 2016 to the end of 2018. Prospect for further research in this direction will be developing a forecast of labor demand in order to improve public policies to balance supply and demand in the labor market.

Keywords

• labor supply
• conception of underutilization of labor force
• forecasting
• analysis of the singular spectrum