Effect of the Near-Future Climate Change under RCP8.5 on the Heat Stress and Associated Work Performance in Thailand

Abstract

Increased heat stress affects well-being, comfort, and economic activities across the world. It also causes a significant decrease in work performance, as well as heat-related mortality. This study aims to investigate the impacts of the projected climate change scenario under RCP8.5 on heat stress and associated work performance in Thailand during the years 2020–2029. The model evaluation shows exceptional performance in the present-day simulation (1990–1999) of temperature and relative humidity, with R2 values ranging from 0.79 to 0.87; however, the modeled temperature and relative humidity are all underestimated when compared to observation data by −0.9 °C and −27%, respectively. The model results show that the temperature change will tend to increase by 0.62 °C per decade in the future. This could lead to an increase in the heat index by 2.57 °C if the temperature increases by up to 1.5 °C in Thailand. The effect of climate change is predicted to increase heat stress by 0.1 °C to 4 °C and to reduce work performance in the range of 4% to >10% across Thailand during the years 2020 and 2029.

Keywords

• heatwave
• heat index
• work performance
• climate change
• NRCM