Projection of extreme precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin, Southeast China

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming, will have a serious influence on society. Based on the latest generation of CMIP6 climate models and high-resolution grid observation data, the quantile mapping method and Taylor diagrams were used to correct and evaluate the simulation values. Six extreme precipitation indices for the near (2021–2040), middle (2051–2070), and far (2081–2100) periods of the 21st century were analyzed under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that most of the extreme precipitation indices will increase over the Minjiang River Basin in the future, and both extreme precipitation and persistent drought will increase at the same time, which is more likely to cause extreme drought and flood disasters. For seasonal variation, the total amount and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase fastest in autumn, while the frequency of extreme precipitation will increase most in summer. Multimodel median changes show a decrease in the return period of RX1day (the maximum 1-day precipitation). By the end of the 21st century, under SSP5-8.5, the extreme events expected once every 100 years under the current climate are expected to occur approximately every 18.6 years. HIGHLIGHTS Quantile mapping and Taylor diagram were used to correct and evaluate the CMIP6 models.; The future changes of Minjiang River Basin extreme precipitation under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were revealed by using six ETCCDI indices.; Future seasonal variations in extreme precipitation were discussed.; GEV distribution indicates that the frequency of precipitation extremes will increase in the future.;

Keywords

• climate change projection
• extreme precipitation
• global climate model
• ssp scenario