Best-fit probability distribution models for monthly rainfall of Northeastern Brazil

Abstract

The analysis of precipitation data is extremely important for strategic planning and decision-making in various natural systems, as well as in planning and preparing for a drought period. The drought is responsible for several impacts on the economy of Northeast Brazil (NEB), mainly in the agricultural and livestock sectors. This study analyzed the fit of 2-parameter distributions gamma (GAM), log-normal (LNORM), Weibull (WEI), generalized Pareto (GP), Gumbel (GUM) and normal (NORM) to monthly precipitation data from 293 rainfall stations across NEB, in the period 1988–2017. The maximum likelihood (ML) method was used to estimate the parameters to fit the models and the selection of the model was based on a modification of the Shapiro-Wilk statistic. The results showed the chosen 2-parameter distributions to be flexible enough to describe the studied monthly precipitation data. The GAM and WEI models showed the overall best fits, but the LNORM and GP models gave the best fits in certain months of the year and regions that differed from the others in terms of their average precipitation. HIGHLIGHTS Real monthly precipitation data from 293 rainfall stations in Northeastern Brazil.; The selection of the model was based on a modification of the Shapiro-Wilk statistic.; The gamma and Weibull distributions showed the best fits compared to the others.;

Keywords

• goodness of fit
• northeastern brazil
• precipitation data
• probability distributions