Мир новой экономики (Apr 2018)
The Bank of Russia Interest-rate Policy in Terms of Balance Accounts Recession
Abstract
The paper shows that the Bank of Russia current interest rate policy is not efficient in conditions of balance accounts recession. Inflation slowing in 2016-2017 is not driving by the Bank of Russia monetary impact measures, but by such factors as speculative capitals inflows, and pressed by it ruble’s revaluation, consumer and investment demand decrease, banks low credit activity. In financial sanctions situation, external inflow of speculative capitals intense pressure on ruble, and balance accounts recession the Bank of Russia should change the monetary policy tools, and enhance coherence of monetary, fiscal, and debt policies. It’s desirable for the Bank of Russia to deploy the financial repression mechanism under quantitative easing program, which approved by the State Duma in the third reading in April 2017. In middle term it allows to form conditions for the Russian economy transition to economic growth, to anchor long term inflation expectations, to resolve the bad debts problem, and to induce the bank’s credit activity for real economy.
