Exploring the Impact of Petrophysical Uncertainties on Recoverable Reserves: A Case Study

Abstract

Reliable estimation of critical parameters such as hydrocarbon pore volume, water saturation, and recovery factor are essential for accurate reserve assessment. The inherent uncertainties associated with these parameters encompass a reasonable range of estimated recoverable volumes for single accumulations or projects. Incorporating this uncertainty range allows for a comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes and associated risks. In this study, we focus on the oil field located in the northern part of Iraq and employ a Monte Carlo based petrophysical uncertainty modeling approach. This method systematically considers various sources of error and utilizes effective interpretation techniques. Leveraging the current state of available data, our approach generates a wide range of theoretically possible results. Furthermore, establishing a set of probabilities to indicate the likelihood of each possible outcome is of utmost importance. By implementing this approach, we aim to enhance reserve assessments by accounting for petrophysical uncertainties, thereby providing decision makers with valuable insights into the range of possible outcomes and associated risks. This study contributes to a more robust understanding of recoverable reserves and supports informed decision making in the oil and gas industry.