Codrul Cosminului (Jul 2018)
The CIA’s Estimates and Forecasts on Soviet Economic and Foreign Trade Policy in COMECON (early 50s – mid 60s of the XXth Century)
Abstract
In the years since the end of the Cold War, the role and place of US intelligence community in shaping governmental decision-making process on the USSR and Communist Bloc affairs during the Cold War period have come into the centre of special historiographical trend in both the USA and Europe. Based on the CIA documents recently available to researchers, the article examines the analysis and forecast on the economic and foreign trade policy of the USSR in the COMECON, produced by the American intelligence since the early 1950s until the mid-60s. The author traces the evolution of the US economic intelligence, engaged in researches and submitting reports on the topic, and the views of CIA analysts on the nature, forms and methods of the USSR to maintain relations with her Eastern European allies within the COMECON. The paper defines several stages in the institutional and cognitive development of US economic intelligence on «intra-bloc» developments and the USSR - Eastern Bloc affairs.
