Assessing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the marginal ice zone in ocean–sea ice reanalyses

Abstract

The recent development of data-assimilating reanalyses of the global ocean and sea ice enables a better understanding of the polar region dynamics and provides gridded descriptions of sea ice variables without temporal and spatial gaps. Here, we study the spatiotemporal variability of the Arctic sea ice area and thickness using the Global ocean Reanalysis Ensemble Product (GREP) produced and disseminated by the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS). GREP is compared and validated against the state-of-the-art regional reanalyses PIOMAS and TOPAZ, as well as observational datasets of sea ice concentration and thickness for the period 1993–2020. Our analysis presents pan-Arctic metrics but also emphasizes the different responses of ice classes, the marginal ice zone (MIZ), and pack ice to climate changes. This aspect is of primary importance since the MIZ accounts for an increasing percentage of the summer sea ice as a consequence of the Arctic warming and sea ice extent retreat, among other processes. Our results show that GREP provides reliable estimates of present-day and recent-past Arctic sea ice states and that the seasonal to interannual variability and linear trends in the MIZ area are properly reproduced, with the ensemble spread often being as broad as the uncertainty of the observational dataset. The analysis is complemented by an assessment of the average MIZ latitude and its northward migration in recent years, a further indicator of the Arctic sea ice decline. There is substantial agreement between GREP and reference datasets in the summer. Overall, GREP is an adequate tool for gaining an improved understanding of the Arctic sea ice, also in light of the expected warming and the Arctic transition to ice-free summers.