The expansion and remaining suitable areas of global oil palm plantations

Qiang Zhao; Le Yu; Xiyu Li; Yidi Xu; Zhenrong Du; Kasturi Kanniah; Chengxiu Li; Wenhua Cai; Hui Lin; Dailiang Peng; Yongguang Zhang; Peng Gong

doi:10.1017/sus.2024.8

Global Sustainability (Jan 2024)

The expansion and remaining suitable areas of global oil palm plantations

Qiang Zhao,
Le Yu,
Xiyu Li,
Yidi Xu,
Zhenrong Du,
Kasturi Kanniah,
Chengxiu Li,
Wenhua Cai,
Hui Lin,
Dailiang Peng,
Yongguang Zhang,
Peng Gong

Affiliations

Qiang Zhao: ORCiD; Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Le Yu: ORCiD; Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Beijing 100084, China Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University – Xi'an Institute of Surveying and Mapping Joint Research Center for Next-Generation Smart Mapping, Beijing 100084, China
Xiyu Li: Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Yidi Xu: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Universite Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France
Zhenrong Du: School of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
Kasturi Kanniah: Faculty of Built Environment and Surveying, Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), Research Institute for Sustainable Environment and Tropical Map Research Group, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor 81310, Malaysia
Chengxiu Li: Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Wenhua Cai: Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf, Nanning Normal University, Ministry of Education, Nanning 530000, China
Hui Lin: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Dailiang Peng: Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Aerospace Information Research Institute, Beijing 100083, China
Yongguang Zhang: International Institute for Earth System Sciences, Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China International Joint Carbon Neutrality Laboratory, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China
Peng Gong: Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Beijing 100084, China Department of Geography and Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2024.8
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 7

Abstract

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Abstract Non-technical summary Oil palm has been criticized for being an environmentally unfriendly oil crop. In recent decades, oil palm plantations have extended into conservation landscapes, causing severe environmental damage and harming biodiversity. Nevertheless, oil palm remains a highly productive oil crop from which most of the world's vegetable oil is produced. Therefore, measuring the environmental impact of oil palm plantations and identifying suitable land to support its sustainable development is crucial. Technical summary To meet the rising global palm oil demand sustainably, we tracked annual land cover changes in oil palm plantation and mapped areas worldwide suitable for sustainable oil palm cultivation. From 1982 to 2019, 3.6 Mha of forests were converted to oil palm plantations. Despite a recent decline in overall conversion, the shift from forest to oil palm plantations has become increasingly more common over the last decade, rising from 14.1 to 34.5% between 2009 and 2019. During 1982–2019, 2.23 Mha of peatland and 0.1 Mha of protected areas were converted for oil palm plantations. The potential sustainable land amounts to 103.5–317.9 Mha (Asia: 44.6–105.1 Mha, Africa: 34.7–96.4 Mha, and Latin America: 35.2–116.5 Mha). Future oil palm expansion is anticipated to take place in countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Colombia, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ghana, where more sustainable land is available for cultivation. Malaysia, on the other hand, is about to exceed the area of sustainable cultivation, and further expansion is not recommended. These findings can advance our understanding of the environmentally damaging impacts of oil palm and enhance the feasibility of sustainable oil palm development. Social media summary How should suitable land be chosen for the establishment of oil palm plantations to support the sustainable development of the oil palm plantation industry?

Published in Global Sustainability

ISSN: 2059-4798 (Online)
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Geography. Anthropology. Recreation: Environmental sciences
Website: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability

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