Will Covid-19 cases in the World reach 4 million? a forecasting approach using SutteARIMA

Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine whether Covid-19 cases in the world would have reached 4 million cases with the SutteARIMA method forecasting approach. Data from this study were obtained from the Worldometer from 1 March 2020 to 05 May 2020. Data were used for data fitting from 1 March 2020 to 28 April 2020 (29 April 2020 – 05 May 2020). The data fitting is used to see the extent of the accuracy of the SutteARIMA method when predicting data. The MAPE method is used to see the level of data accuracy. Results of forecasting data for the period from 29 April 2020 to 05 May 2020: 72,731; 84,666; 92,297; 100,797; 84,312; 81,517; 74845. The accuracy of SutteARIMA for the period 30 April 2020 – 06 May 2020 shall be 0.069%. Forecast results for as many as 4 million cases, namely from 08 May 2020 to 10 May 2020: 3,966,786; 4,047,328 and 4,127,747. The SutteARIMA method predicts that 4 million cases of Covid-19 in the world will be reported on the WHO situation report on the day 110/111 or 09 May 2020/10 May 2020.

Keywords

• covid-19
• short-term forecast
• suttearima