BMC Public Health (Jul 2020)
The prevention and control of tuberculosis: an analysis based on a tuberculosis dynamic model derived from the cases of Americans
Abstract
Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB), a preventable and curable disease, is claimed as the second largest number of fatalities, and there are 9,025 cases reported in the United States in 2018. Many researchers have done a lot of research and achieved remarkable results, but TB is still a severe problem for human beings. The study is a further exploration of the prevention and control of tuberculosis. Methods In the paper, we propose a new dynamic model to study the transmission dynamics of TB, and then use global differential evolution and local sequential quadratic programming (DESQP) optimization algorithm to estimate parameters of the model. Finally, we use Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) to analyze the influence of parameters on the basic reproduction number ( R 0 $\mathcal R_{0}$ ) and the total infectious (including the diagnosed, undiagnosed and incomplete treatment infectious), respectively. Results According to the research, the basic reproduction number is computed as 2.3597 from 1984 to 2018, which means TB is also an epidemic in the US. The diagnosed rate is 0.6082, which means the undiagnosed will be diagnosed after 1.6442 years. The diagnosed will recover after an average of 1.9912 years. Moreover, some diagnosed will end the treatment after 1.7550 years for some reason. From the study, it’s shown that 2.40% of the recovered will be reactivated, and 13.88% of the newborn will be vaccinated. However, the immune system will be lost after about 19.6078 years. Conclusion Through the results of this study, we give some suggestions to help prevent and control the TB epidemic in the United States, such as prolonging the protection period of the vaccine by developing new and more effective vaccines to prevent TB; using the Chemoprophylaxis for incubation patients to prevent their conversion into active TB; raising people’s awareness of the prevention and control of TB and treatment after illness; isolating the infected to reduce the spread of TB. According to the latest report in the announcement that came at the first WHO Global Ministerial Conference on Ending tuberculosis in the Sustainable Development Era, we predict that it is challenging to control TB by 2030.
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