Ra Ximhai (Jul 2015)

RISK HABITAT OF THE MONARCH BUTTERFLY (Danaus plexippus) BY CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

  • Araceli Islas-Báez,
  • Ramiro Pérez-Miranda,
  • Antonio González-Hernández,
  • Martín Enrique Romero-Sánchez,
  • Efraín Velasco-Bautista

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 11, no. Special 5
pp. 49 – 59

Abstract

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The change in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change is altering the ecosystem functioning, so it is important to conduct studies that contribute to the knowledge of species distribution under climate change scenarios, to locate areas vulnerable to the phenomenon. Potential changes were estimated area under climate change scenarios, obtained by downscaling and Regional Assembly Model (RAM) for the winter habitat of the Monarch Butterfly (MM) in the nucleus zone of the Biosphere Reserve of the Monarch Butterfly area. According to the study, the overwintering habitat of the MM disappears in the A2 and B2 scenarios downscaling 2030. With the RAM, reducing the area of habitat MM 2030 is estimated at 37.59 % and in 2050 will be 49.13 %. Therefore, the downscaling model indicates that MM habitat disappears, and the RAM shows that there will be significant losses of habitat MM.

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