Development and Validation of a New Integrative Score Based on Various Systemic Inflammatory and Nutritional Indicators in Predicting Prognosis in Patients With Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background Recent studies revealed that various inflammatory and nutritional indexes were associated with prognosis in esophageal cancer (EC). However, these studies only evaluated one or two indexes, and the prognostic value of these indexes individually or in combination is unclear. This study aimed to construct an integrative score based on various inflammatory and nutritional indexes for prognosis in resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods A total of 421 consecutive patients were randomly divided into either a training or validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3 for retrospective analysis. Using logic regression analyses, independent risk factors from peripheral blood indexes were screened to construct an integrative score. The associations regarding the integrative score, clinical characteristics, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. Results Out of 20 indexes, hemoglobin (HB), C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR), and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent risk factors based on logical regression analyses. Then, an integrative score with the optimal cut-off value of .67 was established according to the Combination Of HB, CAR, and PLR (COHCP). The area under the curve (AUC) indicated higher predictive ability of COHCP on prognosis than other indicators. Multivariate analyses revealed that COHCP serves as an independent prognostic score. Patients with COHCP low group (≤.67) had better 5-year CSS (57.3% vs 13.5%, P < .001) and OS (51.1% vs 12.3%, P < .001) than those with high group, respectively. Finally, the nomogram based on COHCP was established and validated regarding CSS and OS, which can accurately and effectively predict individual survival in resected ESCC. Conclusion The COHCP was a novel, simple, and useful predictor in resectable ESCC. The COHCP-based nomogram may accurately and effectively predict survival.