SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING PERCEPTIONS AND ADAPTABILITY OF RURAL RICE FARMERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ABUJA, NIGERIA: APPLICATIONS OF HECKMAN TWO-STAGE MODEL

Abstract

This study analyzed socio-economic factors influencing perceptions and adaptability of rural rice farmers to climate change, Abuja, Nigeria: applications of Heckman two – stage model. Specifically, the study was designed to achieve the following objectives: describe the socio-economic profiles or characteristics of rural rice farmers, determine the perceptions of rural rice farmers to climate change, determine the adaptation or coping strategies of rural rice farmers to climate change, evaluate socio-economic factors influencing or affecting perceptions and adaptability of rural rice farmers to climate change, and determine the problems or constraints facing rural rice farmers adaptability to climate change. Primary data were employed with the use of well-structured, well-designed questionnaire. Multi-stage sampling was adopted and used. Total sample sizes of 100 rice farmers were employed. The statistical and econometric tools employed were: descriptive statistics, four-point Likert scale, perception use index, problem confrontation index, adaptation or coping strategies use index, Heckman two-stage model, and t-test analysis. The results show that 73% of rural rice farmers were less than 50years of age. About 96% of rural rice farmers had formal education. The average rural rice farms were 2.28 hectares. Rural rice farmers perceived and ranked the events of climate change they include: reduced yields (1st), changes in time and date of planting (2nd), increased rainfall (3rd), and flood occurrence (4th) based on perception use index. The adaptive measures employed by rural rice farmers to reduce the impact of climate change was ranked and they include: practicing intercropping (1st), changing time and date of planting (2nd), crop diversification (3rd), and use of improved varieties (4th) based on adaptive use index. Heckman two-stage results show that factors statistically and significantly influencing perceived events of climate change include: age (P<0.01), educational status (P<0.01),access to information on climate change (P<0.01), farm experience (P<0.01), farm size (P<0.05), and extension services(P<0.01). Factors statistically and significantly influencing adaptive measures employed by rural rice farmers to reduce the impacts of climate change include: age (P<0.05), gender (P<0.05), household size (P<0.05), educational status (P<0.01), access to credit facilities (P<0.01), farm experience (P<0.05), farm size (P<0.05),access to adaptive measures (P<0.01), extension services (P<0.01), and access to input and output markets(P<0.01). The Wald Chi Square value of 78.61 was significant at (P<0.01).The coefficients of multiple determinations (R^2) was 0.7943.The F-value of 363.92 was significant at(P<0.01). This explains the joint effects of the exogenous variables included in the model in explaining variations in the choice of adaptive measures employed by rural farmers in reducing the impacts of climate change. Problem confrontation index revealed that bad road infrastructures ranked 1st, lack of information on climate change ranked 2nd, lack of access to input and output markets ranked 3rd, and lack of irrigation facilities ranked 4th.Principal component analysis shows that lack of information on climate change, bad road infrastructures, lack of irrigation facilities, and lack of access to markets were the constraints facing rural rice farmers that have Eigen values greater than one, and the components retained explained 78.69% variations of all the components included in the model. The study recommends that policy measures should be put in place to inform rural farmers through print media, schools, radio, television, internet, social media, and farmers to farmers contact on climate change. Extension officers should be employed to bring research findings, improved varieties, new innovations and information on climate change to rural rice farmers.

Keywords

• heckman two-stage model
• socio-economic characteristics
• climate change
• rice
• farmers
• nigeria