Modeling of motor fuel consumption in Serbia, with projection to 2025

Abstract

This study is based on the application of mathematical methods of statistical analysis that can be used to predict the development of motor fuel consumption in the Republic of Serbia. It is based on the linear dependence of consumption growth of motor fuel from the development of gross domestic product per capita, which is then corrected by introducing five additional influencing parameters. The model results indicate that the total consumption of motor fuels in Serbia from 2010 to 2025 will be increased by 26.5%. Individual consumption of motor fuels shows different market tendencies. Diesel fuel consumption expects to continue intensive growth to 2025, even though slightly slower than the achievements in the last decade. The current trend of declining demand for gasoline will be stopped from 2014-2015, then followed by slow growth of demand by 2025. Consumption of liquefied petroleum gasses (LPG) will at about 2014 to enter the phase of saturation.

Keywords

• consumption of petroleum products
• GDP
• mathematical model
• Republic of Serbia