Journal of Hydroinformatics (May 2023)

Improved monthly runoff time series prediction using the SOA–SVM model based on ICEEMDAN–WD decomposition

  • Dong-mei Xu,
  • Xiang Wang,
  • Wen-chuan Wang,
  • Kwok-wing Chau,
  • Hong-fei Zang

DOI
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2023.172
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 25, no. 3
pp. 943 – 970

Abstract

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In runoff prediction, the prediction accuracy is often affected by the non-linear and non-stationary characteristics of the runoff series. In this study, a coupled forecasting model is proposed that decomposes the original runoff series by an improved complete ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) (ICEEMDAN) combined with a wavelet decomposition (WD) and then forecasts the monthly runoff using a support vector machine (SVM) optimized by the seagull optimization algorithm (SOA). In this method, a series of Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) and a Residual (Res) are obtained by decomposing the original runoff series with ICEEMDAN. The WD method is used to perform quadratic decomposition of high-frequency components decomposed by the ICEEMDAN method to make the runoff series as smooth as possible. Then the decomposed components are input into the SOA-SVM model for prediction. Finally, the prediction results of each component are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final monthly runoff prediction results. RMSE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSEC), and R are selected to evaluate the prediction results and the model is compared with SOA-SVM model, EMD-SOA-SVM model and CEEMDAN-SOA-SVM model other models. The proposed model is applied to the monthly runoff forecast of the Hongjiadu and Manwan Reservoirs. When compared with other benchmarking models, the ICEEMDAN-WD-SOA-SVM model attains the smallest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and MAPE and the largest NSEC and R. The ICEEMDAN-WD-SOA-SVM model has the best prediction effect, the highest prediction accuracy, and the lowest prediction error. HIGHLIGHTS The ICEEMDAN–WD model is used to decompose the original runoff series.; The proposed ICEEMDAN–WD model can effectively reduce the complexity of the runoff series.; The proposed SOA–SVM model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of runoff series.; The proposed model can provide high prediction accuracy and consistency.;

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