Methodology for forecasting assessing the effectiveness of the asymmetric response of the armed forces of Ukraine to threats in the military sphere

Abstract

A methodology for predictive evaluation of the effectiveness of an asymmetric response to modern threats is presented in the interests of ensuring an adequate level of military security of the state. In the context of the integrated use of military and non-military instruments (economic, political, information-psychological, etc.), there was a need to evaluate and predict the effectiveness of the asymmetric use of military and non-military forces and means in countering force pressure and the use of military force against a state that opposes a stronger military opponent. The main limitation of the state, which conduct offensive actions, is the loss of personnel. For the state-victim of aggression, the loss of personnel, population, infrastructure, etc. in such a conflict much more. World experience shows that the state, which is significantly weak in military relations, by carrying out asymmetric measures to counter threats by military and non-military subjects of the defense forces, is capable of inflicting unacceptable damage on the enemy, including and in non-military areas of security, and thereby force an even stronger military opponent to abandon the use of military force against it. We propose the effectiveness of counteracting state aggression, which significantly dominates the target state in military "power", to assess the total level of threat de-escalation at a certain time due to the symmetric (direct military) and asymmetric (complex) counteraction of aggression in the form of conducting a local special operation. The number of local special operations is determined by the capabilities of the state-victim of aggression. Formed system of restriction and decision-making criteria defined the aggressor state to refuse further aggressive actions.

Keywords

• military security
• threat
• asymmetric counteraction
• force pressure
• military force
• effectiveness of counteraction
• armed conflict
• de-escalation of the threat