Coupling Coordination and Forecast Analysis of Primary Medical Resource Allocation and High-quality Economic Development

Abstract

Background Identifying the factors constraining the coupling coordination of primary medical resource allocation and high-quality economic development are essential for targeted promoting the coordinated development of the two system coupling. However, there are little research on the influencing factors that hinders the level of coordinated development of coupling. Objective To compare and analyze the coupling coordination level and its hindrance factors between primary medical resource allocation and high-quality economic development in China during the "12th Five-Year Plan" and the "13th Five-Year Plan" periods, identify barrier factors, and predict the coupling coordination trend of the two systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan". Methods The research was conducted from July 2022 to May 2023. The evaluation index system was constructed using 17 indicators, covering three dimensions from the primary medical resource allocation system (health equipment, health technicians, and healthcare funding) and five dimensions from the high-quality economic development system (innovation, coordination, openness, shared development, and green development). Data were sourced from the 2012-2021 China Statistical Yearbook and the corresponding China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook. The entropy value method and comprehensive evaluation function were employed to assess the allocation of primary medical resources and economic high-quality development during the "12th Five-Year Plan" and "13th Five-Year Plan" periods. The coupling coordination model was constructed to facilitate this analysis. In order to ascertain the level of coupling coordination, an obstacle function was established in order to diagnose and identify obstacle factors affecting the coupling coordinated development. Furthermore, a grey model was employed in order to predict the trend of the coupling coordination of the two systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Results The degree of coordination between the allocation of primary medical resources and high-quality economic development in China increased from 0.15 to 0.68 between the "12th Five-Year Plan" and the "13th Five-Year Plan" periods. This overall trend was observed to be increasing year by year. However, the coupling model exhibited a low level of coordination, despite the relatively fast growth rate. The main obstacles to the coupling level of primary healthcare resource allocation and economic high-quality development binary composite system in the "12th Five-Year Plan" and "13th Five-Year Plan" periods are health equipment, health technicians, shared and green development. The modified GM (1, 1) prediction model indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the coupling degree of the primary medical system and the economic development level system fluctuates around 1.00, and the whole system is in the stage of the coupling degree of coordination rises from 0.73 to 1.12, indicating a rising trend in the overall situation. Furthermore, the degree of relative development is greater than 1.20, which is indicative of an oversupply state. Conclusion In order to empower the development of grass-roots medical and health systems, it is recommended that the development concept of green sharing is recommended to promote the rationalization of medical resources from three aspects from promoting coordinated development of systems, improving the conditions of grass -roots medical facilities, opening up primary medical talents, and integrating primary medical resources.

Keywords

• resource allocation|primary health care|economic development|coupling coordination|obstacle factor|gray predictive model