A novel nomogram to predict perioperative acute kidney injury following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction

Abstract

Abstract Background and objective Heart failure (HF) is a global health issue, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is one of the most effective surgical treatments for HF with coronary artery disease. Unfortunately, the incidence of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is high in HF patients following CABG, and there are few tools to predict AKI after CABG surgery for such patients. The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of AKI after CABG in patients with impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods From 2012 to 2017, Clinical information of 1208 consecutive patients who had LVEF 2 mg/dL), LVEF< 35%, previous myocardial infarction (MI), hypertension, cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) used and perioperative blood transfusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.738, higher than the other 3 models. By comparing calibration curves and decision curve analyses (DCA) with other models, the novel nomogram showed better calibration and greater net benefit. Among the 540 patients in the validation cohort, 104 (19.3%) had postoperative AKI, and the novel nomogram performed better with respect to calibration, discrimination and net benefit. Conclusions The novel nomogram is a reliable model to predict postoperative AKI following isolated CABG for patients with impaired LVEF.

Keywords

• AKI
• Nomogram
• Heart failure
• CABG
• Prediction model